
Gilded investment? Adding gold to your portfolio
Saturday, March 6, 2010
Depending on which TV channels you watch, you may feel inundated with spokespeople telling you the best thing to do is buy gold. You hear statements like “I invested in gold 10 years ago and it was the best decision I have ever made;” or “it is the investment that goes up in value, not down;” or perhaps “gold has more than doubled in the past 10 years.” Most of these claims you hear are true, but not all.
In 1980, gold hit a record high price of $850. In 1999 the lowest price of gold was $252.80. This price change represents a decline of 70 percent. We can see that gold can and does go down in value at times.
Have gold prices more than doubled in the past 10 years? Absolutely. From the low price in 1999, gold has risen to sell in mid-February for $1,094.50. This change is an increase of 333 percent. From these brief comments you can tell, as with many product advertisements, you have to be a little wary of their claims.
Probably one of the most honest and useful claims of these TV marketers is that gold should be part of your investment portfolio. The reason is simple. Gold does have implied value in that people throughout the world have attached value to it.
Often gold value works in the opposite direction of more traditional investments. Notice that the record high for gold in 1980 was near the peak time of inflation in the United States. Sometimes gold prices stagnate. In the 1990s, gold fluctuated from a high of $423.75 to a low of $252.80.
Since the current decline in the U.S. economy began in 2007, gold has doubled in price.
You may wonder why I take the time to tell you this information. Gold is an investment and the marketing of gold has increased to the level of the real estate market during the good old days of the mid 2000s. Gold, like real estate, is a tangible investment.
Real estate investment is designed to obtain its value from the cash flows it can generate by fixing it up and “flipping” it or by the rents it generates.
But what does gold offer? It has zero intrinsic value. Other than its beauty as ornamentation it has almost zero practical use. Gold developed its value to humans over many centuries as it became a barter metal and eventually was minted into coins and accepted as a measure of value throughout the world.
Most investors should have some gold in their portfolio. It does not have to be the physical product. Gold bullion can be invested in through ETFs or an investor can own the stock of gold mining companies. Gold, like many investments, offers diversification. Generally you do not want to put too much into gold, but several percent could prove to be beneficial.
A final point I want to make is to address why there is so much attention on gold today. The country and world are facing one of the most uncertain economic times in our history. I have read many news sources that I find creditable forecasting that gold will hit more than $2,000 very soon. I have even seen forecasts as high as $3,000. One point made is that even though gold is at a record price, after adjusting for inflation the price would have to reach around $2,200 just to hit the 1980 high value. Recently I have encountered many equally creditable sources claiming gold is at “bubble” prices right now and about to burst. Which prognosticator is correct? Only time will answer that question.
Fred Schadler is an associate professor in the Department of Finance in the College of Business at East Carolina University. He can be contacted at (252) 328-6987 or emailed at schadlerf@ecu.edu.
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