Iraq vote may be delayed, election head warns

BAGHDAD — The official charged with carrying out Iraq's crucial January polls warned Wednesday that they will be delayed if parliament doesn't approve a key electoral bill.

Any delay in the Jan. 16 elections could plunge Iraq into a crisis, undermining the government and leading to instability just as American troops are preparing to withdraw, a process that's scheduled to ramp up after the vote.

Election Commission Chairman Faraj al-Haidari said Parliament must approve a new electoral law when it convenes on Thursday, otherwise the Jan. 16 polls will be delayed.

Iraqi lawmakers have been arguing for weeks over the election law, which is needed to implement the vote. The key stumbling block has been who should be allowed to vote in Kirkuk, a disputed oil-rich city north of Baghdad that is claimed by both Kurds and Arabs.

Al-Haidari said he warned the legislators that if they don't approve the election law by the end of Thursday, the vote will not happen on January 16.

"We informed the parliament that if the election law is not legislated within 48 hours, it would be difficult and impossible to carry out the elections," al-Haidari told The Associated Press.

Kirkuk has been a source of controversy for decades. Under former dictator Saddam Hussein, tens of thousands of Kurds were forcibly displaced under a plan to make Kirkuk predominantly Arab. After the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, many Kurds returned but now other groups claim there are even more Kurds than before Saddam evicted them.

For the Kurds, Kirkuk has an extremely symbolic importance, and they consider it their "Jerusalem." But the Arab-led central government vehemently opposes anything that would remove Kirkuk from its control.

Money also comes into play because the region is home to vast oil fields. A referendum on the city's future, required by the constitution, has been repeatedly postponed.

The immediate question lawmakers have been wrestling with is who will be able to vote in Kirkuk when the election goes forward. Kurds generally have favored using a 2009 voter registry, which likely reflects the Kurdish population growth. Arabs generally prefer a 2004 voter registry, when the Kurdish population was not as large in Kirkuk.

During a news conference Wednesday, the parliament speaker, Ayad al-Samaraie, said there was draft of the election law that most of the political blocs had agreed upon. But he gave no details of the proposal, about who had agreed or — more importantly — who had not.

U.S. and U.N. officials have been intensely following the debate.

"We remain hopeful that the Council of Representatives will pass the law tomorrow," said a spokesman for the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Philip Frayne, referring to the parliament's official name. "We believe it's important the elections take place on January 16th, as scheduled."

The possibility of the delay is additionally worrying because it is at times of political instability that violence tends to rise in Iraq.

However, Joost R. Hiltermann, from the International Crisis Group, said there is also a risk of pushing through a piece of legislation over the objections of key factions in Iraqi society.

"I think what is important is to reach an agreement that works for everyone, which means on Kirkuk, and then you can move forward," said Hiltermann, pointing out that the Iraqi constitution was pushed through despite Sunni worries in 2005 and the next two years saw intense violence and insurgent attacks. "You can also argue that when things are done wrong ... the violence is greater."

A visit Wednesday by Iranian parliament speaker, Ali Larijani, to Iraq and parliament stirred the debate Wednesday. Some Iraqi legislators accused Larijani, who was invited by his Iraqi counterpart, of political interference.

"It is not an innocent visit," said Sunni lawmaker, Osama al-Nujaifi.

Many Iraqi political parties in Shiite-majority Iraq have strong ties to Iran. During Saddam Hussein's regime, many Shiite political and religious leaders sought refuge in the Persian neighbor. However, the connections with Iran have always been viewed suspiciously by Sunni leaders, and many Shiites as well, who worry that Iran has too strong an influence in Iraq.

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Associated Press writer Qassim Abdul-Zahra contributed to this report.

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Nov 04, 2009 - 2:52 p.m. EDT

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